It was two months in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or the reason for the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After the England international drilled in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard query to resolve. History, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have piled up.
Per Opta, in only two games have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their star man to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
His opener originated from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
A reversion to average could be the biggest rival they must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain blasting his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like an essential player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero faced the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
