A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
